Based on projections from the USDA, the U.S. soybean export forecast for 2016/17 (Starting on September of each year and ending on August of the following year) is raised 1.4 million to a record 57.2 million tons due to the strength of exports to date and outstanding sales to be shipped later. As of the week ending in June 29th, accumulated exports had reached 52.9 million tons, 18 percent above this time last year, and exceeded total exports (including outstanding sales) in 2015/16. Outstanding sales of U.S. soybeans for the current marketing year are also strong at 6.8 million tons, slightly below the record level observed in 2015/16. While interest in U.S. soybeans remains strong, the market dynamics driving buyers to the United States are different to last year’s factors, as lower prices following Brazil’s record production have spurred additional global demand. Despite record post-harvest selling, Brazilian producers, facing these lower prices and a stronger real, have been more willing to store a larger percentage of this year’s crop in hopes that prices will rise. This has encouraged buyers to source additional product from the United States where supplies are ample and prices remain competitive. The recent price increase could temper the U.S. export forecast, as the increased prices could spur additional Brazilian sales and dampen global demand, resulting in a larger than usual quantity of reported outstanding sales being pushed into the 2017/18 marketing year.
